Forum:2014 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
Future Start You know the drill...Ryan1000 01:09, October 28, 2013 (UTC) I predict the following activity for the North Indian Ocean (using IMD categories): 8''' depressions, '''6 deep depressions, 4''' cyclonic storms, '''3 severe cyclonic storms, 1''' very severe cyclonic storm, and '''1 super cyclonic storm. AndrewTalk To Me 01:43, January 3, 2014 (UTC) : Here's what I predict: 7 '''depressions, '''5 '''deep depressions, '''3 '''cyclonic storms, '''1 '''very severe cyclonic storm, and '''0 '''super cyclonic storms. Steven09876 05:38, January 4, 2014 (UTC) Arabian Sea 01A.NANAUK Cyclonic Storm Nanauk New storm in the NIO, forecast to become a cat 1, head towards Oman, and weaken to a TS before landfall. ''Ryan1000'' 10:51, June 11, 2014 (UTC) : JTWC has the storm at 55 knots with a forecasted peak at 80 knots. Shouldn't be too bad of a storm for Oman though, since it'll only strike as a TS. Steve820 22:33, June 11, 2014 (UTC) ::: My bad, made a mistake in the active storms template...Anyways, wind shear is 20-25 knots over this, so it won't get any stronger than a cat 1 and weaken to a TS again as it heads towards Oman. It'll cause some rainfall to them, hopefully beneficial. ''Ryan1000'' 01:48, June 12, 2014 (UTC) Depression Nanauk High vertical wind shear really has taken a toll on Nanauk. The cloud structure in the southwest quadrant is significantly detached from the center, and Dvorak numbers for the system are at T1.5. Its current IMD intensity is 25 knots (30 mph)/994 mbar (hPa). The cyclone should completely degenerate within the next 24 hours. So much for it becoming of hurricane intensity! The JTWC already wrote off Nanauk. AndrewTalk To Me 21:42, June 13, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Nanauk Nanauk has become a well-marked low pressure area per the IMD. AndrewTalk To Me 15:45, June 14, 2014 (UTC) :Well, so much for it strengthening to a hurricane! The forecasts really overestimated this thing. Bye, Nanauk! Steve820 16:37, June 14, 2014 (UTC) 02A.NILOFAR Cyclonic Storm Nilofar Currently a minimal TS, but forecast to become a cat 1 before recurving northeast and hitting India as a TS. ''Ryan1000'' 10:07, October 26, 2014 (UTC) :Winds are at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (3-minute) with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg) per the IMD. The LLCC is quite defined, and the JTWC notes a potential eye feature struggling in the middle of all that banding. Due to a complex situation with the STR's, Nilofar is forecasted to move NW before a shortwave trough executes the motion Ryan described above. With good outflow and low VWS, the storm should have no trouble reaching minimal hurricane intensity for the next few days before drier air and other conditions take over. It doesn't look like India needs to worry yet, but who knows... AndrewTalk To Me 13:13, October 26, 2014 (UTC) :: Nilofar could gradually strengthen in the next few days before hitting India. It might be worrying for India but like Andy said, who knows...--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 19:45, October 26, 2014 (UTC) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar Now a cat 4 and ranks as the 3rd strongest storm in the Arabian Sea by wind speed, after Gonu in 2007 (the only cat 5 recorded here) and Phet in 2010, a strong cat 4 that hit Oman as a cat 2. It's still forecast to weaken significantly before recurving and making landfall in India, but damn, this storm looks impressive. ''Ryan1000'' 20:23, October 28, 2014 (UTC) Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar Guess no one's caring much about the NIO...but anyways, this thing is rapidly getting sheared apart, it's now down to a severe cyclonic storm (65 mph, 990 mbars as of the latest advisory), and it's not expected to be much when it makes it to India. ''Ryan1000'' 10:20, October 30, 2014 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Nilofar (2nd time) Down to 50 mph/994 mbars, and expected to die before hitting India. ''Ryan1000'' 20:03, October 30, 2014 (UTC) : I love the strength it achieved earlier, but it's now weakening and I'm not sure if India will even get enough impact from this. Guess it won't be anything worrying like I thought earlier.--Steve820 |Happy 04:42, October 31, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Nilofar Sheared to bits. ''Ryan1000'' 20:19, October 31, 2014 (UTC) :I'm glad Nilofar did not cause a disaster for India and Pakistan. However, it did achieve one feat - it is the strongest Arabian Sea TC since Gonu '07 in terms of pressure. AndrewTalk To Me 00:45, November 1, 2014 (UTC) ::I'm also glad it didn't be a disaster. Lol, it's funny how it got sheared to bits before even touching India. Bye, Nilofar! --Steve820 |Happy 05:19, November 1, 2014 (UTC) Bay of Benegal 01B.NONAME 90B.INVEST Well, the NIO is looking ready to start with a bang! An area of convection is gaining organization in the Bay of Benegal, and it is moving into favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development. Designated as Invest 90B by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Cetner), the agency gives it a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 01:43, January 3, 2014 (UTC) :Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert! Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert! A TCFA has now been issued on this system and it has a '''high chance of formation according to JTWC's website. I think we will see a deep depression out of this, but hopefully we can witness the earliest named NIO storm I've ever tracked (If it's named, it will be Na-nauk!) Steven09876 05:16, January 4, 2014 (UTC) :::It shouldn't become too powerful as it heads just north of Sri Lanka over the next few days. Ryan1000 23:52, January 4, 2014 (UTC) Depression BOB 01 Surprise! The IMD has designated the depression BOB 01 and given it an intensity of 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). On the JTWC side, the agency has designated it Tropical Cyclone 01B, with winds of 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 50 knots (55 mph). However, this cyclone might not last long. While the IMD predicts a deep depression in the next 12 hours, the JTWC weakens it over the next few days and a cyclonic storm is not looking plausible. But enjoy the first January cyclone in the NIO in quite a while! AndrewTalk To Me 01:06, January 5, 2014 (UTC) :Up to 45mph in wunderground,might become a named storm before all is done.Allanjeffs 01:09, January 5, 2014 (UTC) ::Depression BOB 01 made landfall over Sri Lanka and is expected to degenerate in approximately 24 hours. The JTWC has already written off the cyclone. AndrewTalk To Me 13:17, January 6, 2014 (UTC) 03B.HUDHUD Aoi:GFS SUCS GFS develops a sub-950 cyclone and moves it into India in eight days. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 19:22, October 4, 2014 (UTC) Deep Depression BOB 03 Now a deep depression by IMD. Forecast to be a pretty strong cyclone, let's hope this pulls a Phailin and doesn't kill too many people there. 'Ryan1000' 00:55, October 8, 2014 (UTC) :Added a header for you, which I assume is what you meant to do. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:56, October 8, 2014 (UTC) :::Gah, forgot to highlight that and click header 4. Well, either way, India better watch out, this doesn't look too good...Ryan1000'' 00:59, October 8, 2014 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Hudhud Now named by IMD. Hudhud looks poised to become a very strong TC before hitting India in 4 days or so, this is definitely one to watch out for. Ryan1000 11:42, October 8, 2014 (UTC) Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud 65/988. Forecast to be a cat 3 when it hits India in 2-3 days. Ryan1000 20:48, October 9, 2014 (UTC) : I hope this won't be a bad storm. Let's all hope that Hudhud will pull a Phailin and weaken a lot before landfall so we won't have such a destructive/deadly storm from this!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 23:02, October 10, 2014 (UTC) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud Now a cat 2, forecast to be a 3 before it hits India sometime tomorrow or Sunday. Ryan1000 05:11, October 11, 2014 (UTC) : Now making landfall near the city of Visakhapatnam as a 130 mph cat 4, hopefully everyone's out of there by now. Ryan1000 09:19, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :: Yeah let's all hope everyone's out of harm's way, there's a possibility that this might be a very deadly or destructive system once it's all said and done. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:18, October 12, 2014 (UTC) :: God, help those who didn't evacuate! :O :: leeboy100My Talk! 18:41, October 12, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Hudhud Died quickly over land, but caused 24 deaths and as much as 1.6 billion in damage thus far. The damage is extensive, but at least the death toll wasn't too high. Ryan1000 22:34, October 13, 2014 (UTC) : But I could still see the death toll rising a bit in the coming days. It does look like it was a kinda bad storm for the Indians but at least it wasn't as bad as some of the storms that hit them in the past.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:37, October 14, 2014 (UTC) ::Death toll up to 94, with between $9.7 billion and $11 billion in damage. Most destructive tropical cyclone in India's history. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:13, October 19, 2014 (UTC) :::Oh man, damages are now estimated to be at least $11 billion, with a death toll of 109. This may not have been as strong as Phailin, but it was way, way worse in terms of impacts. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:33, October 28, 2014 (UTC) 04B.NONAME Deep Depression BOB 04 Forecast to become Ashobaa before making landfall in India, south of where Hudhud hit, in 3-4 days. Ryan1000 13:19, November 6, 2014 (UTC) : Long gone. Ryan1000 10:06, November 9, 2014 (UTC) :: I guess Ashobaa (Cool name BTW) will have to wait. Hopefully we see it come this month or something. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:23, November 9, 2014 (UTC) 95B.INVEST 95B.INVEST We have a new invest roughly 200 miles ESE of Colomba. It contains a slightly defined LLCC and flaring convection to the west. While 20 to 30 knots of VWS are exposing the SE quadrant, very good poleward and easterly upper-level outflow support further development of 95B, and dynamic models suggest formation in the extended future, per the JTWC. Winds are currently 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) (1-min), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa), according to the agency. With a medium chance of cyclogenesis in the next 24 hours, I hope we can get one more cyclonic storm. AndrewTalk To Me 00:17, December 26, 2014 (UTC) :95B is now ~200 mi ENE of Sri Lanka. The invest's LLCC is now exposed and convection has become more disorganized based on MSI. Although the VWS is still being offset by diffulent flow, the overall structure of the system has just collapsed, and thus, the JTWC has downgraded chances of formation to low for the next 24 hours. Wind estimates have alos been lowered to 20 to 25 knots (20 to 30 mph) (1-min) per the JTWC. If 95B is going to develop, it is going to have to put forth some effort. AndrewTalk To Me 22:22, December 27, 2014 (UTC) ::95B is now located some 250 nm SE of Chennai. The LLCC remains exposed and weakly defined, but some flaring convection is present in the northern quadrant based on MSI. Although the overall environment still remains marginal for additional development, the JTWC has raised 95B's pressure up to 1004 mbar (hPa), and the chances of formation in the next 24 hours remain low. Regardless, it would be nice if the NIO produced another depression before the end of the year. AndrewTalk To Me 18:24, December 29, 2014 (UTC)